One Drop Announces New Overnight Hypo Predictions and Long-Term Health Forecasts at ADA 2020
On June 15, 2020 One Drop announced two sets of study results, presented in posters at the American Diabetes Association’s 80th Scientific Sessions, being held virtually this year.
Long term health forecasts
The One Drop mobile app helps people living with diabetes recognize blood sugar patterns, plan meals, see the effects of exercise on their blood glucose levels and set goals including A1C, weight goals and lower blood pressure.
The first study, which used health and self care data from a sample of approximately 55,000 users, showed that One Drop could accurately forecast changes in average blood glucose, blood pressure and weight up to six months in advance. With accurate long term health forecasts, One Drop aims to preemptively coach users on how best to attain their goals.
One Drop has collected a massive amount of data to guide their insights. The machine learning comes from over 11 billion data points, collected from nearly 3 million One Drop users in 195 countries. The company uses global data to train their AI, but tailors their recommendations to the individual user.
“The real power of our predictive models is how individualized they are,” said One Drop VP of Data Science, Dan Goldner. “We don’t bother looking for broad patterns of factors that might help in distinct groups. Instead, we jump straight to predicting the factors most likely to help you. We update that prediction every day and use that insight to steer your personal One Drop experience.”
Predicting overnight hypoglycemia
People with diabetes using a continuous glucose monitor (CGM) are lucky to know where their blood sugars have been and where they currently are, but few people know much about where they are headed (aside from an educated guess). The Dexcom graph provides trending arrows, but does not make future predictions based on factors like insulin and carb intake.
In February 2020, One Drop announced that they could predict hyper- and hypoglycemia four hours in advance with over 91 percent accuracy for CGM users, and the study announced today expanded on these results, demonstrating the One Drop app’s ability to predict overnight hypoglycemia with up to 87 percent accuracy.
An example of how overnight hypoglycemia predictions could work in practice: If a type 1 diabetic’s (T1D’s) CGM trend line is straight at 8.3 mmol/L150 mg/dL with no predictive insights, they likely would not fear a hypo and perhaps even give themselves more insulin. With the One Drop app, there will be a warning to the user of a likely overnight low, allowing them to proactively prevent a potentially dangerous (or at the very least, minimally frustrating) situation from occurring.
“A reactive, symptom-focused approach to health is unsustainable,” said One Drop CEO and founder, Jeff Dachis. “We cannot expect people living with chronic conditions to spend more and more on healthcare, year after year, but get less and less in return. We must enable everyone to become active participants in their health, not just recipients of services and advice. One Drop is leading the paradigm shift in health management from reactive to prospective, with our new short- and long-term predictions for diabetes-related biomarkers laying the foundation for affordable and highly personalized self-care products.”
The company expects to release these two new predictive features to subscribers this year.
Click here for complete coverage of ADA 2020 from Beyond Type 1.